The AI Takeover: What It Means for Publisher Revenue and Display Ads

By Sam Garton, Brand Account Manager at Tug Agency 

The definition of a “publisher” has evolved. Today, it’s not just traditional media owners, it’s any site monetising through ads, from news platforms to marketplaces and review hubs. Whether it’s editorial content, property listings or travel recommendations, the common thread is reliance on traffic to generate advertising revenue. And that traffic is becoming significantly harder to secure.

A Sharp Rise in Zero-Click Search

An obvious shift comes from the rise of AI-driven search experiences. With AI overviews answering user queries directly on search engine results pages, we’re seeing a sharp rise in zero-click search behaviour. Users are getting what they need without ever visiting a website.

The downstream effect is clear: declining site traffic, fewer opportunities for engagement, and ultimately, reduced inventory for marketers.

Less Inventory, More Competition

While inventory is shrinking due to reduced traffic, competition for that inventory is intensifying. Fewer impressions mean higher demand per available user, pushing up costs and making it more difficult for marketers to scale effectively through traditional display channels.

Programmatic platforms are feeling this pressure too. With fewer users reaching publisher sites, there are fewer bid opportunities in the open web ecosystem. As a result, auctions become more competitive, and efficiency can drop if campaigns aren’t carefully optimised.

Another critical nuance lies in user intent. Brand-loyal users (those who already know what they’re looking for) are still navigating directly to sites or searching with clear intent. These users remain valuable and relatively stable.

However, the real loss is in new user acquisition. AI-powered search is intercepting exploratory queries, meaning fewer first-time visitors are making it to publisher sites. That’s a missed opportunity for brands to engage, influence and convert new audiences.

A Move Toward First-Party Data

So, where does this leave marketers?

The answer lies in control – specifically, control over data. As reliance on organic search traffic becomes less viable, first-party data strategies are becoming essential. By building and activating audiences based on owned data, brands can reduce their dependence on unpredictable external signals.

Lookalike modelling and audience expansion techniques allow marketers to reach users who resemble their best customers, without waiting for them to initiate a search.

This shift also demands a more sophisticated approach to display. With less inventory available, every impression counts more. Targeting needs to be sharper, creative more relevant and measurement more robust. It’s no longer about casting a wide net; it’s about precision.

Our Take: Invest in What You Know Works

From our perspective, the opportunity is pretty clear. Rather than leaning heavily on broad, behaviour-based targeting signals, brands should prioritise known, high-intent audiences.

Brand-loyal browsers – those already familiar with and inclined toward your offering – represent a more reliable and efficient investment. These users are easier to convert and less impacted by the disruption caused by AI in the discovery phase.

That’s not to say prospecting is dead; it just needs to evolve. First-party data, CRM integration and intelligent audience modelling are now the tools that will unlock scalable growth. Meanwhile, over-reliance on third-party signals or passive behavioural tracking is becoming increasingly risky in a landscape where user journeys are less visible than ever.

AI isn’t just changing how people search; it’s reshaping the economics of the open web. For publishers, it means adapting to reduced traffic and rethinking monetisation strategies. For marketers, it means doing more with less: fewer impressions, fewer clicks, but greater pressure to perform.

The brands that succeed will be those that embrace this shift early, investing in data, refining their targeting and focusing their budgets where they can drive the most meaningful impact. And as always, our role is to help navigate that complexity, turning challenge into opportunity through smarter, more strategic media buying.