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Google Meridian: Tug’s Perspective on the Future of Marketing Measurement

A cookieless future has scared many advertisers to believe they’ll lose visibility and control over their performance data. Google has finally rolled out its solution through a new Marketing Mix Modeling tool, Meridian.

Google Meridian was initially launched in March 2024, offered to a small group of digital marketers to explore how their campaigns were influencing sales and other key business metrics. However, as of January 29th, 2025, Google has fully released Meridian as an open-source tool, making it available to a much broader audience. This measurement and analytics platform is designed to help advertisers and marketers better understand the true impact of their marketing efforts using causal inference and incrementality measurement.

It represents a significant shift in digital marketing, particularly in how brands approach data-driven decision-making. As privacy regulations tighten and AI-driven modeling advances, Meridian aims to provide advertisers with a more holistic, predictive, and privacy-compliant way of measuring marketing effectiveness. The emphasis on causal inference and incrementality measurement suggests that Google is moving beyond traditional attribution methods toward a framework that prioritises real business impact.

With Google’s dominance in the digital marketing space, the introduction of Meridian signals a move towards a future where marketing effectiveness can be measured with greater precision, reducing reliance on outdated models like last-click attribution. For marketers, this means adapting to a new way of thinking – one that aligns with causality over correlation.

What Does It Mean For Marketers?

For marketers, Meridian introduces both opportunities and challenges:

  • A Shift From Traditional Attribution: As Google pushes for incrementality and causal modeling, marketers using multi-touch attribution will need to rethink their measurement strategies.
  • Privacy-First Measurement: With the decline of third-party cookies, Meridian offers an AI-driven, privacy-centric way to measure campaign impact.
  • Emphasis on First-Party Data: Companies will need to strengthen their first-party data strategies and integrate them effectively to maximise the benefits of Meridian.
  • More Accurate Performance Insights: Marketers who embrace causal inference can better understand the true impact of their campaigns, optimising budgets and creative strategies based on real influence rather than misleading attribution models.

The key takeaway? Adaptability will be crucial. Brands that invest in advanced measurement solutions and align with Google’s vision of data-driven causality will gain a competitive edge.

What is Tug’s Take?

At Tug, we don’t just follow industry trends – we drive them. Long before Google introduced Meridian, we were already leveraging causal inference and advanced marketing measurement techniques to help brands move beyond simplistic attribution models. Our proprietary tool, Real Impact, has been empowering businesses with a scientific, experiment-based framework for measuring marketing effectiveness across multiple platforms. Meridian validates this approach, but it is only one piece of the broader measurement puzzle.

Our Take on Meridian:

  • Complementing Our Approach: While measurement strategy includes causal modeling, we also leverage additional measurement tools to ensure a comprehensive understanding of marketing effectiveness. Google’s Meridian is an important part of this broader toolkit, and we see it as a valuable complement to our existing approach.
  • Enhanced Support for Disconnected Data: Brands often work with fragmented datasets across multiple platforms. Real Impact bridges these gaps by integrating data from various sources, providing an accurate picture of marketing performance without relying solely on correlation-based models.
  • Beyond Google’s Ecosystem: While Meridian is a powerful tool within Google’s infrastructure, it primarily focuses on data from that ecosystem i.e. Google Query Volume. Our independent solution offers flexibility for marketers who want to measure performance across a variety of platforms, ensuring a more balanced and holistic view of marketing effectiveness.

The Shift to Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)

Google’s introduction of Meridian validates Tug’s commitment to data-driven measurement strategies and reinforces the industry’s move toward Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) as the preferred measurement approach. Unlike user-level attribution, MMM uses aggregated data to evaluate the effectiveness of different marketing channels while maintaining privacy compliance.

LightweightMMM, the predecessor to Google’s Meridian, and Meta’s Robyn are both well-regarded open-source Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) solutions that offer flexibility in customisation and integrating diverse data sources. However, with the shutdown of LightweightMMM, transitioning to Meridian becomes necessary. While Meridian introduces a proprietary framework with more streamlined capabilities, it also requires a shift in methodology, particularly when comparing it to other open-source tools like Robyn and PyMC-Marketing.

Given that Meridian demands coding proficiency, our team’s expertise in statistical modeling and advanced analytics positions us well to make this transition smoothly and integrate it into a broader, multi-tool marketing measurement strategy.

For marketers, this shift means:

  • A Future Focused on MMM: Privacy regulations are making traditional attribution models less reliable, and MMM is emerging as the dominant solution.
  • Choosing the Right MMM Tool: Understanding the differences between Meridian, Robyn, LightweightMMM, and other open-source solutions will be critical in deciding whether to adopt Google’s model fully or maintain an independent modeling stack, enabling a more hybrid approach that leverages the strengths of various tools. 
  • Investing in a Data-Driven Future: Brands that embrace MMM now will have a competitive advantage in measuring and optimising their marketing spend in a cookieless world. Marketers who rely solely on Meridian risk missing the broader picture. Our independent solution ensures a balanced, data-driven approach to marketing effectiveness.

Moving Into the Future

As digital marketing evolves, embracing a wide range of measurement tools will no longer be optional, it will be essential. Marketers must:

  • Invest in First-Party Data Strategies: Strong first-party data collection and analysis will be the foundation of effective marketing measurement.
  • Test and Experiment More: Controlled experiments will become a standard practice for understanding the real impact of marketing campaigns.
  • Adopt Incrementality-Based Decision Making: Moving away from outdated attribution models to frameworks that prioritise business impact will lead to better budget allocation and ROI.
  • Stay Ahead of AI and Automation: Google’s tools, including Meridian, will increasingly leverage AI-driven insights. Marketers must adapt by understanding and integrating these insights into their strategies.

At Tug, we are not just adapting to these changes – we are leading the charge. Our expertise in causal inference, MMM, and multi-platform measurement ensures that brands stay ahead of industry shifts while maintaining independence from any single data provider. By combining Real Impact with the best measurement tools available, we empower businesses to make smarter, data-driven decisions that drive real growth.

For brands that embrace these changes, the future holds more accurate measurement, stronger business outcomes, and sustainable marketing growth.